TI11 Predictions: Who Will Win Dota 2 The International 2022?

The International 2022 (TI11) tournament is currently underway in Singapore, culminating with the Finals matches on the 29th and 30th of October 2022. Following an intense Group Stage, the Main Event has seen many upsets, with multiple prominent teams eliminated from the competition, including defending champions Team Spirit and fan-favorites PSG.LGD.

But now, with only four Dota 2 professional teams remaining: Team Aster, Team Liquid, Team Secret, and Tundra Esports, many fans wonder who among them will rise to the challenge and take home the prestigious Aegis of Champions.

Dota 2 The International 2022 Predictions: Who Will Win TI11?

According to poll data comprising over 17,100 voters gathered by Dota 2 community manager Wykrhm Reddy, it appeared as though many fans believed that PSG.LGD (4,500 votes) had the best chance of winning The International 11.

Evil Geniuses, the second most-voted team, followed narrowly with roughly 4,200 votes. Third in line was Team Secret, with a little over 1,900 votes. Interestingly, presiding candidate Team Liquid was listed sixth (914 votes), followed by Tundra Esports (7th; 735 votes), with Team Aster (14th; 145 votes) among the least likely to win TI11.

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However, more recent predictions by Dota 2 statistician Ben "Noxville" Steenhuizen seem to tell a different story. According to Noxville's Monte Carlos Simulations, updated after The International 2022 Playoffs Day 4, Tundra Esports has the best odds of winning TI11.

Tundra Esports has a 38.14% chance of placing first at The International 2022, followed closely by Team Secret, with a 34.83% win probability. Notwithstanding their current placement in the Upper Bracket, these statistics are sensible, especially after considering both teams' incredible performances thus far.

Tundra Esports and Team Secret achieved top placements (i.e., 1st and 2nd, respectively) in the TI11 Group Stage. They also outright smashed their competition in 2-0 clean sweeps throughout the Upper Bracket of the Main Event.

Still, despite Team Aster (13.86%) and Team Liquid (13.18%) having relatively low odds of winning, both teams have had incredible runs throughout The International 2022. With that said, should either Team Secret or Tundra Esports drop to the Lower Bracket Finals, it will be interesting to see whether Team Aster and Team Liquid will be able to defy these odds and secure a TI11 victory.

Personally, I would love to see Team Liquid make it to the Grand Finals after they battled relentlessly through the Last Chance Qualifiers to get to where they are now, and I look forward to watching them compete.

Update 1: Tundra Esports have advanced to the TI11 Grand Finals after taking down Team Secret 2:1 in the Upper Bracket Finals. Team Liquid and Team Secret will battle in the Lower Bracket Final tomorrow. The Team Liquid dream is still alive!

Update 2: Okay, the Team Liquid dream is dead. Team Secret will take on Tundra Esports (again) in the TI11 Grand Finals! Who will win? We'll have to wait and find out (insert dramatic duh duh duh!!!!)

Final Update: Tundra Esports beat Team Secret 3:0 in The International 2022 Grand Final and are your TI11 Champions!

• Suggested: The International 2022 - All Results, Scores & Standings

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Featured image courtesy of Valve / Dota 2.